Saturday, April 21, 2018

Vanguard Index Funds and their time horizon returns


VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
1 year return: 17.37%
5 year return: 13.79%
(as of 4/19/18)

VOO
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
1 year return: 17.47%

VOOG
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
1 year return: 22.88%
5 year return: 15.88%

VGT
Vanguard Information Technology ETF
1 year return: 32.29%
5 year return: 21.98%

VONG
Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETF
1 year return: 24.45%
5 year return: 16.20%
Major holdings:
Apple 6.5%
Microsoft: 5.29%
Total Top 10 Weighting: 30.39%
 
VTWG
Vanguard Russell 2000 Growth ETF
1 year return: 23.28%
5 year return: 14.62%




Return rates via ETF Finder

Monday, January 29, 2018

Triple leveraged long and short FANG ETF

Triple leveraged FAANG funds are now available for both long and short positions.

FNGU (3x long)

FNGD (3x short)

FNG (regular ETF)

FAANG represents Facebook, Apple,  Amazon, Netflix, and Google, the five powerhouse tech companies, and some of the highest capitalized companies in the world.

The FNG ETF's major holdings as of the end of January 2018:

Percentage of Assets (Top holdings)
Amazon - 12.7%
Google (Alphabet) - 10.2%
Roku - 9.9%
Twitter - 6.3%
Netflix - 4.7%
Microsoft - 4.6%






Monday, September 11, 2017

Get Ready for the Next VIX Wind-up

Even though the major indexes were soaring today, with the S&P 500 up 1.08% and the Dow up 1.19%, volatility could be around the corner with the VIX showing higher lowers on the monthly chart.



Buying XIV or SVXY right after the VIX has spiked can yield nice returns, as long as you are not borrowing money to make the trade.  It's wise to only allocate 10-15% of your portfolio to riskier trades like this.



Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Setting the Bar for VIX Trades



Looking at 2016, for most of the year, when the VIX spiked above 15, it was back down below that bar very quickly.  The month of June was an exception.

Timing inverse VIX investments
(XIV and SVXY)
Keep an alert active in your stock market tracker to let you know when the VIX goes over 15, especially if you are not watching the market every day.  Chances are you can make a nice gain within a week or two if you purchase an VIX inverse.  The best gains are made when the VIX goes over 20, because it rarely stays above that level for a week (barring economic crisis environments or extreme fear).


This is the last one year cycle for XIV (inverse VIX  fund).  There were about 6 opportunities to make large gains (so far in 2016) in a short period of time:
February 10-11
June 14-16
June 24-28
Sept 13-20
Oct 13-17
Nov 2-4

XIV appreciation over five years.

Unlike VIX funds, XIV actually appreciates over time (because of the decay of VIX futures), so if you don't buy in an extreme peak, you could probably cash out within a few months.



Winters seem to be a time of opportunity to buy XIV when it tumbles.

Jan 31-Feb 5, 2014
Dec 10-16, 2014
Dec 31-Feb 11 (2014-2015)

Dec 10-11, 2015
Jan 4-21, 2016




Timing VIX funds 
(TVIX, UVXY, VXX, VIXY)
This is a much harder strategy because these funds cannot be held for long term gains. Never go long on VIX funds.  They are not based on the current VIX level, but rather VIX futures.  It's best to buy TVIX or UVXY when the VIX is below 13 and then sell at the very first spike after the purchase.

Holding any VIX fund for any time period greater than a few weeks is usually not wise, because the VIX funds experience exponential decay over time.


Sunday, November 6, 2016

Just before the election: Why the Market Will Soar on Monday

If you're betting that Hillary Clinton will win as expected, put some capital into inverse VIX products (XIV and SVXY).  During the first week November, the VIX soared to over 20 to close at 22.51.  If Clinton wins, the VIX will probably come crashing down.

Why the market will soar on Monday, November 7th, 2016
No charges after new FBI review of Hillary Clinton emails

Impact of Uncertainty Is Likely to Ease After Election Day (WSJ)

XIV closed at 33.28 on Friday, 11/4, but it's likely that with inevitable VIX decay (and a Clinton win) that it will go above $40 before the next significant VIX spike that pummels the price of XIV.

However, if you're betting against the grain that Donald Trump will win, you could short some of the indexes by purchasing SQQQ, SDOW, .  To protect yourself against significant loses, you may want to put some funds into the inverse of the shorts and also inverse VIX instruments.

3 month XIV chart (inverse VIX) leading to November 7th (Monday).


Friday, March 18, 2016

Long Term Investing Advice

The best investment advice I was ever given was to start investing as young as possible with something that will grow over time.  Even setting aside $50-100 per month can have huge growth over 15, 20, or 30 years.  Time is the most important thing to think about for lifetime investments.

---

Bogle, Buffett agree: Don't watch stocks - MarketWatch
"Don't watch the market closely," Buffett told CNBC in an interview. "The money is made in investments by investing and by owning good companies for long periods of time. If they buy good companies, buy them over time, they're going to do fine 10, 20, 30 years from now."

Which mirrors what John Bogle says about what to do when markets decline. Don't open statements, don't obsess, don't even look.

It's buying high and selling low, the opposite of what you are supposed to do. It's panicking in and out of stocks rather than buying them and just holding on, dollar-cost-averaging during declines and periodically rebalancing.

It's the watching, and then reacting, that is the problem, the sin against your portfolio that Bogle and Buffett warn us against.

The Market is Soaring in March 2016, But Stay Cautious of a Slump Ahead

It seems that suddenly the market headlines are no longer talking about the potential downside that could happen when stocks soar too quickly.

MarketWatch had a great article on 3/17/16 about the how the next financial crisis could be caused by Energy Companies defaulting like dominoes:
Energy sector defaults could go like dominoes - MarketWatch

The domino effect of one mutual fund - MarketWatch
"Markets roll over and die because the financial system finally tires of the evil twins: leverage and poor liquidity. That is what investors should be on the lookout for into 2016. Seven years into a bull market that eventually sprung from that financial agony, the signs are there again that investors will not be able to get away with investing in just anything."

When could the next market drop happen?

Look for the next market drop when the DOW approaches or breaches 18,000.

The 52-week high for the DOW is 18,351.40.
The peak in November 2015 was 17,977.The recent steep climb from Feb 11, 2016 to early March 2016 is about the same slope as the rapid rally from October to the first week of November 2015.




The 52-week high for the the S&P 500 is: 2,134.72



More articles about potential market downside in 2016:

I Still Fear A Big Market Decline Ahead | Kiplinger

5 — and only 5 — things that pose a greater global risk than a Donald Trump presidency - MarketWatch